The Aleph Blog


 

The Crisis at the Tipping Point [0.05]

Posted on Aug. 9, 2017, 12:55 p.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

Ten years ago, things were mostly quiet. I was following it for a firm that was considering doing the “big short” but could not figure out an effective way to do it in a way consistent with the culture and personnel of the firm.

asset bank crisis lending leverage losses mortgage regulators subprime things

 

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 33 [-0.05]

Posted on Aug. 8, 2017, 7:47 a.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

Most of this boils down to chasing past performance, neglecting fundamentals, and neglecting basic risk control.

Do you have basic concepts that you want to have explained?

basic error financial income Investing neglecting policy small Stream years

 

Why is the Stock Market So High? [0.08]

Posted on Aug. 6, 2017, 4:33 a.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

Assuming that you could throw stones on the financial internet, it would be hard to toss a stone and miss articles talking about how high the stock market is. As I have said before, “Nothing brings out the financial worst in people like the lure of seemingly free money.” Eventually those trades sting those that stay at the party too long.

asset bonds Demographics indexes inflation market money stock stronger WSJ

 

Redacted Version of the July 2017 FOMC Statement [0.02]

Posted on July 26, 2017, 6:38 p.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year.

Committee economic expect federal funds funds rate inflation labor market market conditions monetary policy remain

 

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 32 [0.03]

Posted on July 25, 2017, 3:05 p.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

Political changes rarely create the policy/legal changes that people fear or hope for, so relax.

There are seven problem areas in investment return modeling that are rarely dealt with, and certainly never as a group.

clients curves earnings investment margin matter parallel rarely simulation yield

 

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 36 [0.18]

Posted on July 25, 2017, 2:45 p.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

Another way to phrase it: God isn’t a miser; you shouldn’t be either.

Managing a lump sum distribution for income is one of the hardest things to do in investing.

asset economic God home managing market miser phrase risky stable

 

Overvaluation is NOT Due to Passive Investing [0.06]

Posted on July 22, 2017, 4:19 p.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

There’s been a lot of words thrown around lately saying that indexing has been leading to overvaluation of the US stock market. Flat yield curve and low overall yields are the cause of a lot of worries for investors.

assets credit government lead leading market profit stock valuations yield

 

Perceived Versus Real Risk Tolerance [0.13]

Posted on July 9, 2017, 4:59 a.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

Investment entities, both people and institutions, often say one thing and mean another with respect to risk. For the individual, that attempts to measure the amount needed to meet future obligations where future investment earnings are calculated at a conservative level — my initial rule of thumb is no more than 1% above the 10-year Treasury yield.

assets crisis investment liabilities liquidity market meet money net surplus

 

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 31 [0.18]

Posted on June 29, 2017, 11:38 p.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

During this era, I started contributing articles via tumblr to Yahoo Finance. In general, complexity is not rewarded in investments, and particularly insurance companies.

capital equity Finance fund insurance investment management money retirement returns

 

The Doubling Rule, Redux [0.29]

Posted on June 26, 2017, 8:17 a.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

This is a small update of my last piece. I wish that I had put this graph in that piece, because it completes it.

absolute calculator deviations doubling exact perfect Piece rate simplicity small

 

The Doubling Rule [0.19]

Posted on June 21, 2017, 9:58 a.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

If you are famous and dead, many people will attribute clever sayings to you that you never said. Now, if Einstein didn’t do enough for us, he supposedly made many statements praising compound interest, but the articles I have seen haven’t been able to trace it back to an original source.

approximation compound constant double doubling Einstein interest money rate years

 

Redacted Version of the June 2017 FOMC Statement [0.03]

Posted on June 14, 2017, 7:13 p.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year.

Committee developments economic federal funds funds rate inflation labor market longer market conditions remain

 

Stocks always return more than Treasury Bonds. So why doesn’t Social Security invest the trust funds in stocks rather than Treasury bonds?

benefits capital earning government market public reason Social Security stock Treasury bonds

 

Estimating Future Stock Returns, March 2017 Update [0.10]

Posted on June 11, 2017, 4:56 a.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

I lost this post once already, hopefully it will be better-written this time.

Move your return expectations down, and diversify away from the US; there are better returns abroad — but remember, there are good reasons for home bias, so choose your foreign investments with care.

endowment forecast give investments Model normal past returns stock year

 

The Biggest Problems For Investors Today [0.16]

Posted on June 10, 2017, 6:18 a.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

I am also involved in the investing space and wanted to ask a quick question.

Fifth, too many people are relying on investments to fund their future spending — that also exacerbates the first problem.

biggest equity future government investment investors post problems returns valuations

 

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 30 [0.16]

Posted on April 20, 2017, 9:21 a.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

Why do new asset classes work very well for a time and then fail?

People don’t need assets as much as they need streams of income derived from the assets (dividends, capital gains) that allow them to purchase the goods and services that they want and need.

Adversarial CFA ignorance professing regulated regulation things unavoidable valuable wrong

 

Arconic Arguments [0.07]

Posted on April 4, 2017, 12:27 p.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

There’s a lot of bits and bytes spilled in the war between Elliott Associates (and those that favor their position) and the current board of Arconic. I want to point out a few things, having held Alcoa since prior to the breakup, and added to my positions in both new Alcoa and Arconic post-breakup.

Alcoa Arconic board breakup card existing improve proxy things vote

 

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 29 [0.07]

Posted on April 4, 2017, 10:36 a.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

This set of posts is unique in going through how the insurance entities of Berkshire Hathaway allow Buffett to hold as much as he does of his stocks/businesses through his insurance companies. If there are no good deals, profitable investing sits on cash, and waits for a better day.

complain explains factor fail Harney investment lose publicly secretive Trust

 

The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 28 [0.22]

Posted on April 2, 2017, 4:45 a.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

Be regular (I need that advice myself), write on what you care about, start small.

How to sort though multiple factors in investing, and is investment in the insurance industry overdone?

avoid bank free give managing municipalities severe small stress

 

Four Simple Investment Strategies That Work [0.02]

Posted on March 30, 2017, 9:27 a.m. by The Aleph Blog @ [source]

This will be a short post, though I want to toss this question out to readers: what investment strategies do you know of that are simple, and work on average over the long-term?

I chose these because they are simple.

button hit Investing management momentum necessarily publish things training volatility