The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the second quarter. That is below the long-term historical average of 3.1%, but better than the 2.1% we’ve seen on average since the Great Recession ended in 2009.annual fixed GDP increases investment oil quarter rate recession Solid
Steve Kopits obsesses on the household survey based employment series for Wisconsin, despite our previous exchange on why reliance on this series for Kansas is a problem. But just to make matters concrete, lets look at a few vintages of the household series.civilian employment establishment household June release Steve survey variation Wisconsin
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. After all, they have spent 7 years with that as their single-minded goal, they campaigned on it in the 2016 presidential election, and they now control all branches of government.government Health health care insurance mandate Obamacare pay Republican role system
Readers will recall that, in response to CNN bringing Stephen Moore on board as an “economics analyst”, I noted that Stephen Moore is a liar. Now as the Brownback experiment has ended, it’s useful to see exactly how disastrous the Moore prescription has been for the Kansas economy.calculations California Florida gained job Kansas Moore past Texas year
Well, I don’t think a few tariffs and quotas, plus “tweaking” Nafta, are going to do it.
Something to remember, as the House starts trundling toward massive budget busting tax cuts (well, unless you believe spending cuts will be imposed in line with the tax cuts; if you do, well David Stockman has a bridge to sell you).balance budget deficit defined dollar ex petroleum exchange rate net export saving trade
Center for International Governance Innovation (CIGI, Canada); Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Information Internationales (CEPII, France); Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW, Germany); Japan Institute for International Affairs (JIIA, Japan); Royal Institute for International Affairs (Chatham House, United Kingdom); Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE, United States). The project covered the following three subjects, representing major challenges for G7 policy-makers: macroeconomic policy coordination; international trade relations; global financial stability.Affairs center conference governance innovation Institute international Japan policy United
STEEL REPORT COULD COME NEXT WEEK: Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is expected as early as next week to give President Donald Trump a menu of options for restricting steel imports, senators said after a closed-door meeting with the Cabinet official Thursday afternoon. This is interesting because imports of steel from China have decreased, and now rank behind countries like, for instance Russia.administration American China domestic imports market raise restrictions Steel tariff
The CBO has just released an assessment of the President’s budget proposal.
Here are the projected budget balances, under CBO baseline (blue), as claimed in the Budget submitted by the White House (red), and as assessed by the CBO (green).administration assessed balance baseline budget CBO economic Green President budget red
In a forthcoming paper (“The New Fama Puzzle”), coauthored with Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France), Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France), Jonas Heipertz (Paris School of Economics), we re-examine uncovered interest parity – the proposition that anticipated exchange rate changes should offset interest rate differentials. This development affords us the opportunity to examine whether the Fama puzzle is a general phenomenon or one that is regime-dependent.coefficient differential examine Exchange expectations Fama finding interest puzzle rate
We have great capabilities in the area of trade.” [US Ambassador to UN Nikki] Haley said she spoke at length to President Donald Trump on Wednesday morning about “countries that are allowing, even encouraging trade with North Korea, in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.” “Such countries would also like to continue their trade arrangements with the United States,” she said. That’s because punishing China with effective trade sanctions would likely hurt America as much as the target (including through third channels as the global economy is hurt).China countries credible hurt Model non sanctions threat trade Trump
In several recent pieces   , I have worried about the economic implications of trade protection, particularly those moving forward in the guise of “national security”. While the President has recently spoken of the evils of Germany, I do not realistically believe there will be a surge of attacks on Americans of German descent, but should diplomatic and economic relations with China or other nations deteriorate, other groups may be targeted.China countries economic groups implications minority moving partly President worried
In a world of global competition and new technology, I think competition is coming from new places. New partners are choosing to merge and sort of changing the marketplace and [bringing] more competitive pressures on price margins…If that’s the case, and I think that’s just speculative at this point, then it means that we need even more accommodation to get inflation up.agree competition expectations factors inflation Natural Phillips rate unemployment year
Following Senator Sasse’s suggestion to implement HR 3762, the President tweeted in support of some version of repeal and delay.
The number of people who are uninsured would increase by 18 million in the first new plan year following enactment of the bill.ACA CBO elimination enactment expansion marketplace Medicaid plan purchased subsidies