Dynamic Hedge


Total Coin Supply and Disinflation in ICOs [0.17]

Posted on Aug. 11, 2017, 11:53 a.m. by Dynamic Hedge @ [source]

Startups are doing ICOs and issuing protocol tokens rather than equity fundraising. One of many differences between an equity raise and an ICO is that ICOs have a new weird disinflation dynamic where your investment will almost certainly get diluted in a systematic way.

COIN equity future ICO investment investors money protocol relative supply


Tokens, Blockchain, and Bubbles [0.11]

Posted on June 2, 2017, 5:41 p.m. by Dynamic Hedge @ [source]

Over the last year or so I’ve delved deeper into the blockchain and cryptocurrency space as well as a couple other related businesses.

I’m going to be writing more about this space in the future.

Altcoins Bitcoin bubble couple Earth Ether global brand higher lots market


Three Ways To Be In Service To the Market [0.05]

Posted on March 2, 2016, 9:41 p.m. by Dynamic Hedge @ [source]

The constant drone of controversy you hear in the background on active vs passive management and rules-based vs discretionary and how you “outsmart” other investors obscures the fact that there are only three ways to make money in the market: Accept the equity risk premium, provide liquidity, and uncover superior information. As an equity investor, you are taking on the riskiest portion of the capital structure to gain access to the present value of the future earnings of a company.

capital efficient equity investors liquidity lower market return stocks unit


Underlying behavioral trends [0.09]

Posted on Feb. 22, 2016, 11:16 p.m. by Dynamic Hedge @ [source]

It seems the market is in a downtrend, but trends can be notoriously difficult to identify in their early stages.

To understand the overall risk appetite of the market, let’s calculate how the market has reacted to >2.5% weekly rallies in the past.

big Bottom dominant gain market patterns rally Trend weekly year


Pattern Recognition vs Pattern Matching [0.15]

Posted on Feb. 12, 2016, 7:49 p.m. by Dynamic Hedge @ [source]

Pattern recognition is an incredible skill that we mostly do without even noticing. Pattern recognition is not the same as pattern matching.

common FB flexibility immediately market matching outcomes pattern recognition send


Seasons of the market [0.02]

Posted on Feb. 11, 2016, 8:54 p.m. by Dynamic Hedge @ [source]

A sunny and bullish trending market showering your portfolio with gains feels incredible. During the market summer, bearish sentiment quickly turns cautiously optimistic and the tape transitions from oversold to overbought — and stays overbought for weeks.

bearish break market obvious optimistic overbought season sentiment turn winter


Volatility expands at the end of a bull market [0.16]

Posted on Nov. 24, 2015, 8:14 p.m. by Dynamic Hedge @ [source]

We all know that volatility tends to expand when in a downtrending bear market. One of the things I look for when trying to anticipate the end of a bull market is “upside volatility expansion”.

expands frequently horizon market medium reward significant trending upside volatility


Market maps and cycle changes [0.07]

Posted on Oct. 26, 2015, 9:16 p.m. by Dynamic Hedge @ [source]

The biggest debate in markets over the past two months is whether the late August drop would lead to a deeper decline and potential recession or whether it’s a buying opportunity.

Let’s look at the patterns which have conditioned investor perception of risk over the bull market cycle.

correction data dip dominant future higher market pattern potential rally


Macro that matters [0.15]

Posted on Oct. 1, 2015, 3:32 a.m. by Dynamic Hedge @ [source]

The market has lost momentum, prices are trending down, and sentiment is terrible. That said, I want to revisit the macro data points I find most useful to provide a counterbalance to the bearish flow.

bull data economic lower market report signs things Trend warning


Is your brain a fortress or a wild bus ride? [0.11]

Posted on Sept. 26, 2015, 10:45 a.m. by Dynamic Hedge @ [source]

Is your brain a fortress or a wild bus ride?

Now, imagine a bus driver standing behind a giant steering wheel.

Ball choice couple driver emotional heart House personality reaction surgery


Sector Momentum Visualized [0.12]

Posted on Sept. 23, 2015, 10:48 p.m. by Dynamic Hedge @ [source]

A couple of months ago I wrote a post about the behavioral principals behind the momentum effect in the markets.

Below is a table which ranks the 12-month returns for the S&P 500 ($SPY), Real Estate ($VNQ) and the constituent sectors which make up the S&P 500 index ($XLB, $XLE, $XLF, $XLI, $XLK, $XLP, $XLV, $XLY, $XLU.

highlighted internalize Losing momentum persists post reasons visual wanted winning


Simple rule to improve financial decisions [0.11]

Posted on Sept. 5, 2015, 7:48 p.m. by Dynamic Hedge @ [source]

Why are financial decisions so difficult? We’ve heard ad nauseum about how behaviorally we’re not wired to make great financial choices.

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